Saturday, December 29, 2007

Valutazione megaditta.


Proviamo a mettere a frutto quello che ho imparato.

Attualmente il valore delle azioni della megaditta è di circa 12.50 EUR.
Il mercato ha dato il valore giusto a queste azioni?
La mia valutazione è che le azioni sono leggermente sopravvalutate.

Proviamo ad utilizzare il modello Discounted Cash Flow per calcolare il fair value.

Nel 2006, secondo i miei calcoli, il Free Cash Flow (FCF) è stato di circa 3.7 milioni di EURO. Il FCF non è cresciuto significativamente dal 2004, anzi è diminuito. La megaditta è un'azienda senza debiti, quindi il suo WACC è pari al costo del suo patrimonio che ho calcolato con il modello CAPM ed ho stimato essere pari a 13.69%.
Se consideriamo una crescita del FCF del 2% in perpetuo, e alle condizioni attuali è una stima ottimistica, questo ci porta a valutare le azioni a circa 12 EUR.

Nella figura una valutazione del prezzo delle azioni per diversi tassi di crescita del FCF.

Monday, July 30, 2007

Maverik


I am reading Maverik by Ricardo Semler.
Ricardo is the son of a successful Brazilian businessman, owner of Semco, company specialised in industrial mixers.
When Ricardo took over the responsibility of the company from his father, he decided to foster a more participative and democratic form of corporate management, where important decisions where taken with the workers and not only by the top management.

I would like to share with you a short excerpt from the book:


Almost all businessmen think that their employees are involved in the firm and are its greatest asset.
Almost all employees think they are given too little attention and respect, and cannot say what they really think.
How is it possible to reconcile these two positions?
The sad truth is employee in modern corporations have little reason to feel satisfied, much less fulfilled.
Companies do not have the time or the interest to listen to them, and lack the resources or the inclination to train them for advancement. These companies make a series of demands, for which they compensate employees with salaries that are often considered inadequate.
(...)
The era of using people as production tool is coming to an end. Participation is infinitely more complex to practice than conventional corporate unilateralism, just as democracy is much more cumbersome than dictatorship. But there will be few companies that can afford to ignore either of them.


These illuminating words where written more than 10 years ago. What is the situation now in most corporations?
Apart from few exceptions, I would say desolating.
The rise of the Internet age has brought more participation but also more frustration. Employees imagine how corporations could change and improve creating a more fulfilling and productive environment but are often blocked by myopic middle and top management that is more concentrated on short term goals than value creation, on defending its small turf than growth.
The word company comes from Latin, meaning "divide the bread". How can we divide the bread if employees and managers do not share the same vision and the same goals?
What especially bothers me is ethical lapses which may start with a fake fax or a fake note but may end with jeopardising what a company is up to ultimately: building a better world.

Thursday, June 28, 2007

Tesoretto



Con un debito pubblico al 106.7% del PIL nel 2006 (103.9% nel 2004) ed un deficit di bilancio al 4.4% nel 2006 (3.0% nel 2002) [fonte Economics Intelligence Unit] la risposta di cosa farsene del tesoretto dovrebbe essere ovvia.
Ma qui siamo troppo occupati a litigare tra guelfi e ghibellini.

Ah Serva Italia, di dolore ostello, nave sanza nocchiere in gran tempesta, non donna di province, ma bordello!

Dante

Sunday, June 24, 2007

Un viaggio a Monaco


Sono andato a Monaco in Germania (mi sono svegliato alle 4.30 purtoppo).
Arrivato in aeroporto a Monaco ho preso prima un treno poi un autobus, visto che adesso non vogliono più che prendiamo i taxi.
Io non sapevo dove scendere allora ho chiesto all'autista. Purtroppo l'autista non parlava nè italiano, nè inglese.
Era però molto simpatico e cercava veramente di aiutarmi. Abbiamo iniziato a comunicare a gesti e con le poche parole di tedesco che conosco (keine arbeit fur Irochese).
E' venuto fuori che l'autista non era tedesco ma di Sarajevo e si è esaltato quando ha saputo che venivo dall'Italia. Ha iniziato ad elencare tutte le attrici famose degli anni sessanta e settanta facendo commenti (Laura Antonelli, Sophia Loren, etc...) E poi tutti i cantanti (Toto Cutugno, Eros Ramazzotti, ...) Alla fine sono arrivato all'università dove dovevo andare, e non mi ha nemmeno fatto pagare il biglietto, la società dove lavoro così risparmia!

Lì all'università hanno una cosa stranissima: hanno un tubo che parte dal quarto piano e va direttamente nella zona dove c'è la mensa. I professori e gli studenti lo usano come scivolo e volevano che lo provassi anche io.
Prendono dei tappeti, ci si siedono sopra e si buttano nel tubo a velocità folle.
Io dovevo parlare con un professore di circa 55 anni, una persona molto stimata nel suo settore. Un classico professore di informatica: un po' grassoccio, impacciato e con gli occhiali spessi.
E gli ho chiesto: "prof, non mi dica che anche lei usa il tubo!"
E il prof. " Ma certo, ho anche fatto una gara di velocità con un mio collega ma ho perso!".

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Indian restaurants @London


Bombay Palace (Marble Arch)
Masala Zone (Angel, Oxford Street)
Quilion (St.James Park)
Woodlands (Leicester Square)
Khan's (Bayswater)
La Porte Des Inde (MarbleArch)
Palms of Goa (Tottenham court rd)
Gopals (Soho)
Kerala (Oxford Circus)
Veeraswamy (Regent Street)
Chowki (Picadilly Circus)
Amaya India Bar & Grill (Motcomb Street)
Govinda's (Soho)
Sema (City)
Gaylord's (Mortimer Street next to Oxford Circus)
Punjab (Covent Garden)
Ragam (Cleveland street near Warren street Tube)
Chai Pani (Edgeware Road)
Cafe Naz (Brick Lane)
Cliftons (Bricklane)
Tayyabs/Lahore Kebab House (Aldgate)
Lahore (Between Aldgate and Shadwell)
Shahee Bhelpuri (Norbury)
Benaras (Berkley Sq.)
Beity (Bayswater)
The Cinnamon club The Bombay Bicycle club East is east (Commercial Rd)
The Spice Merchants (Westferry Road)
Tamarind Mahmoods (Green Street)
Zu's (Green Street)
Tiffin bites Dixie's Pakwaan (Ilford)
The Malabar Junction (Great Russell Street)
Rasa Samudra (Charlotte street)
Mela (Shaftesbury Avenue)
Cafe Spice Namaste (Prescott street)
Chatkara (Elephant &Castle)
Cinnamon tree (Bracknell)
Paprika (Canterbury)
Chutneys (Drummond street)
GK II (North Finchley)
Rajasthan (Monument)
Mirch Masala (Whitechapel)
The taste of India (EastHam)
Mobeen (Eastham)
Shaan-e-Punjab (Goodmayes)
Fushia (Croydon)
Five hot chillies (Wembley)
Sharanabhawan (Wembley)
Tulsi (Wembley)
Jashan (Wembley)
Chennai Dosa (Wembley,Eastham,Croydon)
Bombay Dreams (Wembley)
Prem Karahi
Chor Bizzare
Madhu's (Southall)
Omi (Southall)
Dilliwalla (Southall)
Chandni Chowk (Southall)
Horizons (Hounslow)
Sakoni's (Harrow)
Dal Chini (Wimbledon Park)
Monty's (Kingston)
Sahib's (Northwood hills)
Dhaba Tandoori (Isleworth)
Jaffna House (Tooting)

Monday, June 18, 2007

Mindmap di MDD


Creata con freemind

Friday, June 08, 2007

Company Vision



Il nostro successo è basato sul rispetto dell'individuo, sia che si tratti di un cliente o di un collaboratore. Noi trattiamo tutti con la dovuta attenzione perché crediamo che la nostra ricchezza stia nelle persone, nella loro umanità, nella loro creatività e nella loro professionalità.

Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Scapegoats

I would like to speak about René Girard.
He is a French philosoper of Catholic formation.
He has developed and interesting anthopological theory based on the critical analysis of the Bible.

His main idea is the existence of "mimetic desire", namely his theory is that we tend to desire objects just because other people have them. In his opinion the trigger of desire is imitation or mimesys.
The mimetic desire causes tension in society. Tensions are are resolved through sacrifices. In old times the sacrifices were literal such as human sacrifices, then as society became more civilised the scarifices were substituted by animal sacrifices (scapegoat) or by symbolic sacrifices.

In his opinion the problem with the sacrifices is that they are a temporary solution and there is an ethernal cycle of mimetic desire, crisis in society and sacrifice.

Being a religious person and a Christian, Professor Girard sees in the sacrifice of Jesus Christ the only way to break this vicious cycle.

I think I have observed Girard's theory of sacrifice and scapegoating in many cases in real life.
In office dynamics it sometime happens that scapegoats are picked with the aim to solve tensions. But this is also a short-term solution.

In Girard's opinion this ethernal cycle is also true in society as a whole. Sometimes a group becomes a target for scapegoating in order to inconsciously solve tensions in society. Also the growing "phobias" in developed world can be seen in this light.
We tend to blame others for our weaknesses.

Monday, May 07, 2007

Itunes: price discrimination?

Price discrimination is the practice of selling the same product to different buyers at different prices [BD]. This is only possible under certain conditions. First condition is that the company applying price discrimination must enjoy market power. The reason for this condition is that a company in a competitive market must accept the price P* set by the intersection of demand and supply in order to sell the quantity produced Q*. On the other hand a company with market power has a certain degree of flexibility on deciding the optimal price. Second condition is that the company is able to segment the market, in other words to identify different groups of consumers with different levels of price sensitiveness.

Companies set the level of price where marginal revenue is equal to marginal cost (MR=MC). If a company enjoys market power, it will set the price higher than marginal revenue. This implies that the price set by the company with market power will be higher than the marginal cost (P*>MC=MR). This fact causes a deadweight loss proportional to the difference between the price charged and the MC=MR. In other words the company will choose to sell the products at price P* and quantity Q* and lose the chance to sell an extra quantity Q’ at a lower price P’, still above MC, for fear of driving down the prices and the profit. If a company was able to divide the consumers into different segments with different price sensitiveness and charge each segment the maximum price each would pay, the company would have higher revenue and also the deadweight loss would be reduced, making the market more efficient. The extra revenue the company will make is P’(Q’-Q*).

If it is possible to directly identify the different groups, for example segmenting the market according to the geographic location or age, we speak of third-degree price discrimination. On the other hand if it was only possible to segment the market through purchase patterns and from that infer the segment, we speak of second-degree price discrimination. Common ways to perform indirect price discrimination are quantity discounts and Sunday night stays for air flights.

An example of direct price discrimination is the price Apple chooses to charge for downloading music from the Itunes Stores (ITS). The price differs substantially from US to Euro Area as we see in table 1.

Country

Price for one download

Comparison (US = 100)

US

.99$ = .74€

100

Euro Area

.99€

134

Table 1 - Prices and Exchange Rates taken on 10th April 2007 [ITUNES]

Apple enjoys market power because there are not direct (legal) competitors and it can successfully geographically segment the market by relating the credit card number to the country of residence of the customer. The high price differential (34%) is consistent with the theory.

It is more difficult to assess if applying a price differential between US and Europe is the correct strategy. Is Apple correct in guessing that US and Euro Area have a different elasticity of demand? In order to estimate the correctness of Apple hypothesis we could try to estimate the number of purchases per year per person across US end Europe. Apple does not publish these data but according to my calculations (see appendix for methodology) the number of estimated sales per person per year in the European countries served by ITS is 0.3 while in US is 0.5. We can estimate that Apple is cashing 0.4€ per person in US and 0.3€ per person in Euro Area for a total of 120m€ in US and 102m€ in Euro Area [see Appendix]. The gap in revenue per person and gap in total revenue suggests that the demand elasticity might not be so different to account for a 34% price differential. I would expect that Apple sought to get about the same revenue per person across the ocean. These calculations are just rough estimates since ITS cost structure and selling data are the best kept secrets at Apple.

An indication that the estimates made in this brief research are roughly correct and that Apple’s direct price discrimination strategy might not be optimal, is the fact that Apple has recently introduced the “My Album” service, where customers can purchase an entire album with a discount. This is an example of indirect price discrimination. In addition to that, Apple is studying the possibility to introduce a price discrimination [ECO07] based on perceived technical quality of the track. Apple will sell tracks with a higher sound quality at a higher price [FT030407]. Apple is also evaluating the possibility to sell the newest titles at a higher price [FT090407] which is one of the price discrimination techniques CD retailers normally use.

Bibliography

[BD] business dictionary on bestOfBizGold http://www.bestofbiz.com

[ITUNES] itunes online store as 9th April 2007

[FT030407] Financial Times (London); 03 April 2007; ALINE VAN DUYN; p. 28

[FT090407] Financial Times (London); 09 April 2007; EMIKO TERAZONO; p. 22

[ECO07] The Economist 4th April 2007 “A change of tune”

[FOR06] Forrester December 2006 “Few iPod Owners are Big Itunes Buyers” by Bernoff

[Apple06] Apple press statement 2 august 2006

[BUS07] “Fun With The Forrester Report and My Calculator” by Arik Hesseldhal

Appendix: Methodology used for estimating the number of purchases per year per person.

US: in [FOR06] it is stated that in 2005 0.18 tracks per households where bought in US. According to the US census there where 300 million persons and 110 million households in US in 2005. This means that about 0.5 track per person where bought in US in 2006. The revenue per person is calculated as (price per track) * (track per person sold) = 0.4€.

Europe: the total of the population of European countries served by Itunes is about 340million in 2005, according to Eurostat. In [Apple06] it is claimed that Apple sells about 100million tracks per year in Europe. This means about 0.3 tracks per person in Europe in 2005. The revenue per person is calculated as (price per track) * (track per person sold) = 0.3€.

[see also BUS07]

Monday, April 23, 2007

Guru Excel


Come si fa ad aprire un worksheet specifico di un workbook excel che ne contiente tanti, ma tanti tanti?
Come ad esempio il worksheet della dea delle messi?

Niente di più facile:
1) posiziona il cursore del mouse nel angolo in basso a sinistra
2) premi il tasto destro del mouse
3) si aprirà un menu a tendina: scegli a tuo piacimento il worksheet preferito

Buon divertimento!

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

300

Il miglior film di propaganda dopo "Il trionfo della volontà" di Leni Riefenstahl.

Thursday, March 22, 2007

Statistica


Oggi su quotidiano molto diffuso e molto trash hanno pubblicato la notizia che chi ascolta musica metal diventa molto intelligente.
Per quanto sia tentato di abbracciare questa teoria (quando ero al liceo amavo molto gli Iron Maiden) bisogna stare ben attenti a non confondere la correlazione statistica e la correlazione inferenziale. Sono concetti molto diversi. Se le confondiamo si può dimostrare qualunque cosa.

Monday, March 19, 2007

Ontologie, pensieri, parole...


Oggi qualcuno entra in ufficio e spara dal nulla:
"Le ontologie ed il web semantico sono come la Corazzata Potemkin." "Sono una...
...tecnologia inutile :-)"

Questa semplice affermazione ha generato una discussione di altissimo livello intellettuale tra il gotha della megaditta.
Il trust di cervelli ha sviscerato l'argomento in tutti i suoi aspetti.
Si attendono presto interessanti sviluppi...

Nel frattempo mi sono ricordato di un articolo che avevo letto tempo fa su un tizio americano che aveva fatto un esperimento con delle forme per cuocere i biscotti.
Aveva bendato un amico, gli aveva immobilizzato le dita in qualche modo e gli aveva dato da riconoscere una lunga serie di formine: a stella, a cuore, a orso etc.
L'amico non riusciva.
Quando gli ha slegato le dita, anche bendato l'amico riusciva ad individuare le forme.
L'ipotesi di questo tizio (J.J. Gibson) è che le persone riconoscano alle forme perché grazie a manipolazioni ne estraggono gli invarianti.
Mi sembra di ricordare che qualche altro scienziato ha scoperto che la retina dell'occhio umano vibra. Questo fatto potrebbe essere spiegato grazie all'ipotesi di Gibson, nel senso che la retina vibrando sottopone gli oggetti a cambi di prospettiva che potrebbero contibuire a estrarre gli invarianti dalle forme e facilitarne il riconoscimento.

Un po' di sitografia.
Il paper originale è questo, ma non l'ho trovato in rete.
Gibson, J. J. (1987). “The perception of visual surfaces.” American Journal of Psychology 100(3-4,): 646-664.
Reprints in its original form J. J. Gibson's 1950 article outlining his influential theory of perception, which centered on the idea that humans perceive objects against backgrounds in the real world by perceiving invariant relationships among the features of the figure and ground.

Thursday, March 15, 2007

A Difficult Conversations Checklist

I have recently read a great book. I want to share with you the main points. Anyway to really grasp the methodology put forward by the authors you should read the whole book.
The book is: Difficult Conversations by D. Stone and others
It is based on a long research made by Harvard during their Negotiation Project.

Step 1: Prepare by Walking Through the Three Conversations
  1. Sort out What Happened
    • Where does your story come from (information, past experiences, rules)? Theirs?
    • What impact has this situation had on you? What might their intentions have been?
    • What have you each contributed to the problem?

  2. Understand Emotions
    • Explore your emotional footprint, and the bundle of emotions you experience.

  3. Ground Your Identity
    • What's at stake for you about you? What do you need to accept to be better grounded?
Step 2: Check Your Purposes and Decide Wheter to Raise the Issue
  • Purposes: What do you hope to accomplish by having this conversation? Shift your stance to support learning, sharing, and problem-solving.
  • Deciding: Is this the best way to address the issue and achieve your purposes? Is the issue really embedded in your Identity Conversation? Can you affect the problem by changing your contributions? If you don't raise it, what can you do to help yourself let go?
Step 3: Start from the Third Story
  1. Describe the problem as the difference between your storie. Include both viewpoints as a legitimate part of the discussion.
  2. Share your purposes.
  3. Invite them to join you as a partner in the sorting out the situation together.
Step 4: Explore Their Story and Yours
  • Listen to understand their perspective on what happened. Ask questions. Acknowledge the feelings behind the arguments and accusations. Paraphrase to see if you've got it. Try to unravel how the two got to this place.
  • Share your own viewpoint, your past experiences, intentions, feelings.
  • Reframe, reframe, reframe to keep on track. From truth to perceptions, blame to contributions, accusations to feelings, and so on.
Step 5: Problem-Solving
  • Invent options that meet each side's most important concerns and interests.
  • Look to standards for what should happen. Keep in mind the standard of mutual caretaking; relationships that always go one way rarely last.
  • Talk about how to keep communication open as you go forward

Miami Vice

Mi è piaciuto abbastanza ma non mi ha entusiasmato.
Gli attori sono bravi, qualche scena come quella iniziale in disco molto bella.
La storia tutto sommato già vista in tanti altri film.
Un sacco di pubblicità per i telefonini, computer etc.
In alcuni casi mi è sembrato che la storia fosse funzionale alla tecnologia.
Ad esempio il cattivo di turno aveva un sacco di sistemi elettronici di supporto. Boh, perché?
Comunque un paio d'ore di intrattenimento.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Pianificazione a lungo termine.

Il padishah Tamerlano stava cercando qualcuno che potesse insegnare il suo asino a parlare.

Ovviamente nessuno voleva accettare il lavoro, anche per la fama che Tamerlano si era guadagnato.
Un bel giorno Hodja Nasreddin, uno dei più rispettati ulema della città, accettò il lavoro per una somma di denaro equivalente al peso dell'asino in oro. Pena il taglio della testa, Hodja Nasreddin promise che in dieci anni avrebbe insegnato l'asino a parlare.

"Sei impazzito Hodja?" i suoi amici gli chiesero ansiosi. "Tamerlano non perdonerà che tu lo abbia preso in giro. Il tuo destino è segnato."

"Veramente no" rispose l'anziano maestro. "La paga è buona, il lavoro non è molto pesante."
"E poi, " Hodja concluse " in dieci anni molte cose possono accadere. Chissà. O muoio io, o muore Tamerlano o di sicuro questo vecchio asino potrebbe morire".

Thursday, January 04, 2007

Oro blu


diceva l’oste al vino
tu mi diventi vecchio
ti voglio maritare
con l’acqua del mio secchio
rispose il vino all’oste
fai le pubblicazioni
sposo l’idrolitina
del cavalier Gazzoni!